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  #41  
Old 04-07-2020, 07:32 PM
PHC1 PHC1 is offline
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Investors should prepare for a coronavirus-induced ‘vicious spiral’ more than twice as bad as the financial crisis, says J.P. Morgan

https://apple.news/AmpW_NQYHSYa6vnbJPocgsQ
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  #42  
Old 04-08-2020, 09:58 PM
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Everyone has a opinion. Here is the reality... after every economic downturn there has always been a recovery and the market has always gone higher. Don't try and time the market or you will miss the biggest rise.
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  #43  
Old 04-09-2020, 11:13 AM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by 1KW View Post
Everyone has a opinion. Here is the reality... after every economic downturn there has always been a recovery and the market has always gone higher. Don't try and time the market or you will miss the biggest rise.
The “reality” right now is there are 17 Million unemployed with no end to the virus in sight. Quite a few of the best fund managers out there are predicting a recession beyond the Great Recession. The market is reacting to the trillions of dollars of government bailouts and that obviously also can’t continue for much longer. Rates are at zero, no ammunition left. Before we see a market that goes “higher”, we will see some turbulence back and forth with an abyss just a few steps away. Cash is king right now. Wait and see. That’s my take on it but I’m no expert.
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  #44  
Old 04-09-2020, 12:02 PM
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‘‘No one should think the government can wave a wand and all of a sudden the economy is anything like it was before this happened.’’

Bill Gates.
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  #45  
Old 04-09-2020, 12:28 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by PHC1 View Post
‘‘No one should think the government can wave a wand and all of a sudden the economy is anything like it was before this happened.’’

Bill Gates.
Does anyone really think the economy just pops right back?

There will be pent up demand for goods and services. But certainly not enough to be right back where we were before all this.
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  #46  
Old 04-09-2020, 12:35 PM
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Indeed. Supply chains will need to be re-established among many other logistical problems in getting the economy moving again. The pent up demand will, thankfully be the driver while the lack of $$ for about half the economy will be a drag. Plus, based on the latest info, some states will not move thru this until the middle of July. Ain't gonna be easy.
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  #47  
Old 04-09-2020, 12:47 PM
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I’m not worried about the market personally. I’ve gone to cash already. I’m worried about the UN warning as to food shortages around the world. Read a report yesterday that the major meat and corn processing plants here in the US are having a problem with workers getting sick! If the food supplies falter, we will see something much scarier than a market crash.
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  #48  
Old 04-09-2020, 01:59 PM
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There is no way the economy will recover quickly or even in the next few years. There is going to be a snowball effect as people adjust their spending habits. Some once major retailers (Sears, Penny's, possibly Macy's are not going to come out of this at all or in a very different form.

The travel industry and the economy of states like Florida will take a hit as the cruise industry which employees almost a 250k people in the US might take a huge hit. Airlines which profit nicely from those long haul business flights to Asia and Europe will continue with underutilized assets.

A third of US didn't/couldn't pay their rent this month.

My guess a number of people will delay the purchase of new vehicles for a year or so.

On and on.
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  #49  
Old 04-09-2020, 02:16 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by PHC1 View Post
I’m not worried about the market personally. I’ve gone to cash already. I’m worried about the UN warning as to food shortages around the world. Read a report yesterday that the major meat and corn processing plants here in the US are having a problem with workers getting sick! If the food supplies falter, we will see something much scarier than a market crash.
Food is overrated



A bit of COVID Humor.
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  #50  
Old 04-09-2020, 04:38 PM
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Topline: The International Monetary Fund's Managing Director Kristalina Georgieva said in a briefing Thursday the agency is anticipating the worst economic fallout since the Great Depression

"We are still faced with extraordinary uncertainty about the depth and duration of this crisis," Georgieva said. "It is already clear, however, that global growth will turn sharply negative in 2020."

Expecting per capita income growth in 160 of its member countries three months ago, the IMF is now projecting negative income growth in 170 countries this year; about $100 billion in investments have been pulled from global markets, according to the agency, three times more than the '08 financial crisis.
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