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  #11  
Old 02-28-2020, 08:00 PM
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If you take away the deaths that occurred right in the epicenter near Wuhan, I believe I read the mortality rate is near 0.5 %. These are likely preliminary figures, but that’s very very low and likely to be the case in developed countries with proper healthcare infrastructure. Sub-Saharan Africa and places like that I imagine could be much much worse.

- Buck
Just so you know, Buck, even a virus with lethality index of 0.5%, this is 5X the lethality of Influenza. And, there are approximately 65,000 - 69,000 deaths/yr due to influenza the USA alone. So, a lethality index of 0.5% is not very, very low...that's 1 in 200 infected people dying from it.

In actuality, the lethality index of this virus is minimally 2.5, and may be 3 or even higher, as some epidemiologists have stated. Lethality indexes have virtually nothing to do with epicenters, they have everything to do with virulence.
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Last edited by Puma Cat; 02-28-2020 at 08:06 PM.
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  #12  
Old 02-28-2020, 08:53 PM
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Just so you know, Buck, even a virus with lethality index of 0.5%, this is 5X the lethality of Influenza. And, there are approximately 65,000 - 69,000 deaths/yr due to influenza the USA alone. So, a lethality index of 0.5% is not very, very low...that's 1 in 200 infected people dying from it.

In actuality, the lethality index of this virus is minimally 2.5, and may be 3 or even higher, as some epidemiologists have stated. Lethality indexes have virtually nothing to do with epicenters, they have everything to do with virulence.
While those numbers are correct, they also take into account the large number of fatalities that occurred in Wuhan center in the first month of the outbreak. The same study showed the lethality rate outside Wuhan center to be 0.16 % to 0.4% in other provinces. One other thing to consider is that there are probably thousands to tens of thousands of cases in China that have not been recorded since some people only get the sniffles or may not show any symptoms whatsoever. I know it’s dangerous to assume, but you have to figure once the case numbers increase worldwide, the mortality rate numbers will slowly fall.
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  #13  
Old 02-28-2020, 09:06 PM
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While those numbers are correct, they also take into account the large number of fatalities that occurred in Wuhan center in the first month of the outbreak. The same study showed the lethality rate outside Wuhan center to be 0.16 % to 0.4% in other provinces. One other thing to consider is that there are probably thousands to tens of thousands of cases in China that have not been recorded since some people only get the sniffles or may not show any symptoms whatsoever. I know it’s dangerous to assume, but you have to figure once the case numbers increase worldwide, the mortality rate numbers will slowly fall.
???

The lethality index is independent of the epicenter and...once the case numbers increase worldwide..more people will die. The death toll in Iran is already 210.
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Last edited by Puma Cat; 02-28-2020 at 09:13 PM.
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  #14  
Old 02-28-2020, 09:21 PM
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???

The lethality index is independent of the epicenter and...once the case numbers increase worldwide..more people will die. The death toll in Iran is already 240.
(BTW, I know you probably know all this.....you are a microbiologist if I’m not mistaken )

I know what the lethality index is, lethality is a better way to measure clinical significance in a disease, but case fatality rate is a much more useful number for the general public especially in the early stages of an outbreak.

......numbers taken alone suggest a case fatality rate of around 2%, very high for a respiratory virus. But the true number of infected individuals circulating in the population is not known and is likely to be much higher than 4,500. There may be 50,000 or 100,000 additional cases in Wuhan that have gone undetected, and, if this is the case, it would put the case fatality of 2019-nCoV infections in the range of 0.1% to 0.2%.

That’s a big if in that report though. I don’t mean to make light of this of course, but It’s honestly a fascinating study in how something like this can spread and the response trying to contain it.
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Old 02-28-2020, 09:23 PM
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Maybe we should have a Coronavirus thread.....this was about Munich. Oh well.
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  #16  
Old 02-28-2020, 09:25 PM
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Maybe we should have a Coronavirus thread.....this was about Munich. Oh well.
No worries, I've got my professional scientist hat on....been doing epidemiological research all day.
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  #17  
Old 02-28-2020, 09:31 PM
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No worries, I've got my professional scientist hat on....been doing epidemiological research all day.
It’s really fascinating, I’ve been following it by the hour too.......I think the most interesting thing so far is perfect correlation with age and death rate. Really strange it doesn’t seem to affect children whatsoever. You would think there would be some babies, kids or toddlers with asthma or some respiratory health condition affected but that doesn’t seem to be the case so far.
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  #18  
Old 02-28-2020, 09:33 PM
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Originally Posted by audioguy3107 View Post
It’s really fascinating, I’ve been following it by the hour too.......I think the most interesting thing so far is perfect correlation with age and death rate. Really strange it doesn’t seem to affect children whatsoever. You would think there would be some babies, kids or toddlers with asthma or some respiratory health condition affected but that doesn’t seem to be the case so far.
Babies have a somewhat different immune system than adults; the proportion and classes of Immunoglobulins is different in babies than in adults, for example.
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  #19  
Old 02-28-2020, 09:58 PM
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Babies have a somewhat different immune system than adults; the proportion and classes of Immunoglobulins is different in babies than in adults, for example.
Of course, but that doesn't explain the lack of kids being affected. Very unusual. I think where the rubber is going to meet the road so to speak is if this thing gets a foothold in sub-saharan Africa. If it begins to spread in Lagos, Nigeria and surrounding countries, those societies could be in real trouble. You've seen what an Ebola outbreak can do and Ebola is nowhere near as contagious as this (but far less virulent of course). If this reaches areas like Chad, Cameroon, Central African Republic etc. yikes.

- Buck
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  #20  
Old 02-28-2020, 09:58 PM
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Originally Posted by audioguy3107 View Post
It’s really fascinating, I’ve been following it by the hour too.......I think the most interesting thing so far is perfect correlation with age and death rate. Really strange it doesn’t seem to affect children whatsoever. You would think there would be some babies, kids or toddlers with asthma or some respiratory health condition affected but that doesn’t seem to be the case so far.


My only question is whether anyone at dinner last Saturday night had the virus .... I tried to kill it with as much high proof bourbon as possible.
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