Quote:
Originally Posted by Puma Cat
Just to add to the good information that Tony has provided:
The R0 of COVID-19 may be as high as 4, the R0 of H3N2 Influenza B is 1.3.
The lethality index of COVID-19 is as, Tony has pointed out, about 3.4% presently. The lethality index of H3N2 is 0.1%. This makes COVID-19 approximately 34X as deadly as H3N2 Influenza B.
While Influenza B typically subsides in the April/May time-frame, we have no epidemiological data to know what will happen with COVID-19. Most epidemiologists are predicting we will have continued expansion in the number of cases and deaths for the next year. It also appears that the strain in Italy has become more virulent than the strain in Wuhan.
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We actually don't know what the mortality rate will be in the US, or really in many other countries either. That is because we have no idea how many have contracted the virus and have had either no symptoms or only mild illness. The denominator may be much larger than presently known. And also because of the vastly better health care available in the US, relative to other countries.