Casey...I agree with a lot of what you said. I think the innovation story in terms of form factor and functionality on a phone is topping out. Where Apple can show leadership adn innovation is with build out of services from phone functionality. The thumb scan sensor is being rolled out initially without much fanfare right now but if it proves to be a reliable security feature, then Apple should really push forward with the digital wallet concept. It takes time to put together a payments ecosystem but my guess is Apple has behind the scenes plans/agreements with the likes of Visa and MC on that front.
Wearable computing (iWatch, Google glass, etc...) is also coming but Cook's public statements have been very cautious on this front and I would not expect a major rollout before 2014.
iTV I also think is early stages and will probably be back half of 2014 story. I think the next majopr catalyst(s) for the stock will be:
1) Initial iPhone 5S and 5C launch sales
2) Potential uptick in share repo program (see Icahn's tweet from last few weeks)
3) Potential announcement of China Mobile deal announcement in November
4) Upcoming Q3 and Q4 results (tug of war between margin compression story and ability to grow topline again and stabilize margins and show earnings growth momentum again)
I personally think, the stock will be range bound in the $450-$500 range in the coming weeks but any of the above can get the stock above $500 in the not too distant future. But I agree, it will take something extraordinary like iWatch or iTV (i.e., new category altogether) to get growth momentum investors back in the stock. This one now is kind of a boring value play (cheap on earnings and cash flow, tons of cash on b/s being returned to shareholders, ...).
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